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Wednesday, August 31, 2005

ELECTION BOOK UPDATE: New TV3 poll. National narrows lead: $2.25

--------------3 SEPT. UPDATE--------------
Latest Fairfax poll:
LAB 41%, NAT 44%, NZF 4%, GRN 5%, ACT 1%, MAO 1% UNF 2%

Winnie's in trouble. The two-parties @ 85%! Unprecedented, surely! No third party seems to have traction or a novel enough message to make impact. NZF has no 3 things, Greens are just plain boring, Act is toast because Nat's have all their main policies, Maori Party have not caught imagination of those outside of core group ie. Pakeha, United Future are waffly fence-sitters... is it surprising? As the harness racing commentators say "400 from home and coming out of the bend it's neck and neck with Labour sitting it out for the passing lane." I'm not moving from $1.58.

Centrebet:
LAB $1.55, NAT $2.25
--------------2 SEPT. UPDATE--------------

Latest NZ Herald poll:
LAB 43.4%, NAT 39.1%, NZF 6.6%, GRN 5%, ACT 2.1%, UNF 1.7%, MAO 1.2%, PRG 0.1%, DST 0.4%. Don't Know 10.2%

Polls reflecting news-of-the-day reactions of swinging voters. Hugely volatile. See also Brash's personal stats improving: Clark still strong at 52.8% but Brash on 34.8% as most preferred PM. This is significant. As stated and restated previously if Brash can be seen as a credible alternative leader he will have the momentum necessary to change the government and push National ahead. He just has to act more like a statesman and brush off criticism rather than engage in defending himself against Labour's dirty tactics because this just gives legs to a media beat-up. He's still an amateur in a professional code.

Centrebet:
LAB $1.50, NAT $2.40
----------------------------------------

Latest TV3 poll (31/8):
LAB 39%, NAT 41%, NZF 6%, GRN 6%, ACT 1.4%, UNF 1.7%, MAO 1.7%, PRG 0.8%, DST 0.9%. Don't Know 11%.

National is gaining here - the poll is clear evidence. All the beat-up surrounding the Brash leadership emails is irrelevant and the voters know it. Still doesn't help that he has no mates in his pocket re: coalition. With 11% as will vote but don't know - it is still fairly volatile. Hey, Cullen, how many lollies do you have left?

Centrebet yet to move @11:45pm - good money here for Nats @ $2.55. Hurry!
LATEST UPDATE:@ 1:30pm 01/09: Labour $1.55, National $2.30.
LATEST UPDATE:@ 5:30pm 03/09: Labour $1.55, National $2.25.

-------------CURRENT ODDS--------------
-----2005 New Zealand General Election-----

HEAD TO HEAD

Option 2: Nat-Lab head-to-head largest party vote.
$1.58 Labour
$2.25 National

Tuesday, August 30, 2005

GUEST BLOG: Can everyone just calm down?

Introducing special guest blogger, Martyn Bradbury.

----------------/MB/----------------

Poor Marc Ellis, the guy has been hunted down by the media like a child molester who has just been given a job at a kindergarten. The demonising of Ellis for the very mundane crime of buying a couple of ecstasy pills has shown a new low for rational debate on adult recreational drug use in this country.

Here's how I see it: comparatively E is NOT a dangerous drug. In the past 15 years of its widespread availability in this country, no more than 4 people have died on ecstasy. 4 people in 15 years when compared to the tens of thousands of people killed in that time through tobacco or alcohol suggests that the war on drugs only starts at those narcotics that
make you happy and are relatively low on mortality rates.

This societal hypocrisy is matched only by those recreational users in the media who but for the grace of having slightly less obvious dealers would be getting the same character assassination currently focused on Ellis. I find it ironic that many on the other side of the microphones who are well known to enjoy a line or two at any social gathering are also the ones so keen to put the boot into Ellis.

Human beings enjoy drugs, they do so because it alters our perceptions and can create deep emotional feelings that our somewhat shallow, meaningless consumer culture void never seems to fill. Don't get me wrong, I'm not advocating drug use, I'm being realistic about the reasons people use them, and I see rationally that prohibition and the puritanical desire to punish only serves to make the criminal organisations richer and more powerful. Add to this the cult of incarceration for drug
users and we only end up exasperating the problem as normally law abiding citizens are put into violent prisons where compliance with criminal organisations are the only guarantee of an assault free term.

The craziest thing is that I honestly believe that there would be LESS media fuss if Marc Ellis had been caught drink driving - a crime that in my mind is far more heinous than that of buying a couple of E pills.

Baby Boomers were the original drug experience generation, they knew what they got up to behind their parents back, and the paranoia at what their kids might be doing behind their backs has led to a moral conservatism view fanned by a media
keen to sell ratings that demands revenge on those it deems 'immoral' for the very human desire to experiment. For those who would claim that it's illegal, and that's that, may I remind you that it was only a couple of decades ago that being queer was a criminal activity and could see you imprisoned, it took great social courage to force change to those out dated laws, and we urgently need to do the same with prohibition.

Finally, if this was really about saving people from themselves because of long term health effects, we should start then by shutting down every KFC, MacDonald’s and Burger King in the country as obesity and heart disease kill many times more than all illegal drugs combined. But this isn't about health concerns, it's about a mechanism of control over society, the sooner we stop being irrational on the issue of drugs, the sooner we can really treat those addicts who have a problem, minimise the harm to other recreational users and break the stranglehold of power organised crime has on this country.

Marc Ellis is a good guy, he didn't deserve the feeding frenzy he was put through.

----------------/MB/----------------

Monday, August 29, 2005

Awatere-Huata's jailing racist?

Donna Awatere-Huata and husband Wi Huata found guilty of fraud etc. await sentence over $80 odd grand of education ministry funds. Two issues have arisen of concern:
1. Is Awatere-Huata being treated harsher than similar "white collar" offenders and if so is it anything to do with racism? (as claimed by some Maori Party candidates), and
2. Should convicted offenders (like her) be sent to jail immediately on a pre-emptive basis, without the need of a pre-sentence report, on the presumption that the sentencing judge will definitely give a jail term?

To answer point 2 first - this is how it works:

Now having intimate and unfortunate personal knowledge of how the system works I have a great appreciation for the American system (from what I understand through television programmes!) whereby the convicted offender remains on their current bail terms until the appeal time expires at which point they must present themselves at the jail to be taken into custody. This allows for family matters, children, finacial affairs etc. to be put in order. This is very important as our system of immediate jailing makes victims out of family, children, business partners etc. who have their stakeholder suddenly removed.

To say every offender should treat a jury verdict like they were at Donald Trump's "You're Fired" Apprentice TV show board meeting and be prepared for immediate elimination is too harsh. To go through the rigmarole of attending to everything necessary for imprisonment is a huge psychological ordeal. People who are innocent or believe they will be found not guilty or who have every reason to believe they will not receive a jail term often do not or cannot prepare for a sudden imposition of imprisonment. Who will pay the mortgage? Who will look after the kids? How will my business operate? How can you organise that when you maintain your innocence and are busy defending yourself? And these things all affect other people and the courts in this country ought to recognise that fact.

The chances of rehabilitation or reintegration after release are going to be harder if the offender has lost their house/flat/children/business/job only for want of not being given a few weeks to sort everything out. If the courts think that part of the punishment is the shock and family/financial trauma they are peverse indeed. If an offender must serve time in jail then would it be unjust for it to start at the expiry of their appeal time? Awatere-Huata didn't even have time to appeal her conviction let alone her sentence! They would still serve the same amount of time behind bars, so why the unseemly rush? - especially if the trial itself (and remember the trial is be definition and practice an ordeal) may have taken weeks and been in preparation for months or even years.

Point 1 - Is it too harsh and is it racism?

Hmmm, deal with racism later, harshosity. Let's find some roughly similar-ish recent examples and other dishonesty/money related offences so we can compare (Example 5 seems similar but involving less money):

Example 1: NZ Herald report 05/02/2004
Judge Simon Lockhart in the Auckland District Court sentenced Stephen Rolf Gubb, 48, to four years' jail on December 22. Gubb's wife, Helen, 35, was sentenced to nine months' jail on December 5, deferred for two months with the right to apply for home detention.
They have two children, aged 5 and 7 at the time of sentencing.
Stephen Gubb pleaded guilty to two charges of false accounting, five of using a document with intent to defraud and three of forgery. Helen Gubb pleaded guilty to two charges of false accounting and two of using a document with intent to defraud.
counsel's submissions before sentencing said they had sold their home and repaid Westwater residents $232,790.28, leaving $82,996.45 owing. Beauford Properties had been repaid $100,000.
"The actual loss figure in relation to Mr Gubb's offending is $854,996.45, not including interest, recovery or legal costs," the court heard. "The actual loss figure in relation to Mrs Gubb's offending is $144,996.42."

So the wife gets home detention only because of the kids - fair enough. No previous.
Mr Gubb: 4yrs/$854,996.45 = $213,749 pa = $585 per day. (based on actual net loss not gross amount) No previous conv. Ethnicity unknown.

Example 2: NZ Herald report 01/06/2004
Judge Harvey sentenced Greig to 20 months in prison for accessing a computer system and 18 months for the other charges of credit-card fraud. Home detention was refused and the sentences are to be served concurrently... Greig, 21,... used several credit card numbers to buy $6900 worth of equipment. His scam successful, he returned to spend $1400 more on computer gear.... Weighing against Greig was the fact he faced two charges of burglary in 2002, was sentenced to community service, but broke his sentence. In January he was also sentenced to 400 hours of community service and ordered to make reparations of $7463.
Mr Greig: 20mnths/$6,900.00 = $4,141 pa = $11.34 per day. Previous conv. Ethnicity unknown. Harsh-o-rama!!!

Example 3: NZ Herald report 30/10/2002
A 65-year-old Auckland doctor was sentenced to a total of three years' imprisonment yesterday on charges of fraud and wilfully attempting to obstruct the course of justice... He had claimed money from Health Benefits, a business unit of the Ministry of Health, for consultations with patients that never took place... Philipiah did not have an unblemished record. There were false tax returns in the 1980s and an audit by Health Benefits in the 1990s involved a $70,000 settlement for inappropriate claims... Philipiah's $650,000 settlement with Health Benefits. "This is public money on a large scale," Judge Moore said.
Mr Philipiah: 3yrs/settled. (Gross figure @$650,000 = $216,666 pa = $593 per day). Prev. Ethn. unkn.

Example 4: NZ Herald report 07/07/2003
A serial fraudster whose sentence was reduced with a reparation payment says she was punished more by the payment than a prison term. The case of the 45-year-old woman... She was convicted on fraud charges and sentenced to 27 months in prison in the Gisborne District Court last year. Appalled at the length of the sentence handed down, she appealed after serving eight months. A High Court judge reduced her sentence to 18 months and added an order to pay $1600 reparation... The charges related to amounts adding up to about $7000 against businesses. She had been caught on fraud-related offences before, had served prison terms twice and paid reparation numerous times.
Ms X: 18mnths/$7000 = $4,666 pa = $12.78 per day. Prev. Ethn. unkn. Why did she wait to appeal?!

Example 5: NZ Herald report 20/03/1999
The mother of three was the enthusiastic coordinator of Kaikohe Plunket's car seat rental scheme in an area where just 60 per cent of children are buckled up. But the 27-year-old stole $19,500 from Plunket and did long-term damage to the campaign she once so keenly helped promote. Judge Clapham, sentencing Alexander in the Kaikohe District Court yesterday for fraud, described her offending as a calculated breach of trust... As a first offender, Alexander was sentenced to six months periodic detention, ordered to repay $10,000 to Plunket.
Ms Alexander: 6mnths PD/$19,500 No Prev. Ethn. unkn.

Etc. etc. I don't have the ethnicity data so I can't make a call on the racism aspect. But the real "white collar" criminals seem to get an easy ride compared to the "blue collar" frauds of a few thousand. Maybe it's a social class thing?

If Donna is a high class dame she'll get her $80,000 @ $550 a day = 5 months.
If Donna is a low class skank she'll get her $80,000 @ $15 a day = 14 1/2 years.


Don't wear ugg boots, Donna for fuck's sake! She'll be hoping the sentencing ratio declines exponentially. Then again, the 65 year old Doctor was off to prison even though he had made full restitution... so, after all this text, I'm stating very clearly and precisely that I don't know. And likewise the Maori Party candidates who want to support Donna (and they have every right too and should in her time of need) should also be circumspect when accusing people or institutions of racism if it is based on one case. I expect to see a proper study/evidence that demonstrates it rather than a knee-jerk call although I don't expect the media to either report it if made or independently investigate it. The problem with throwing the term "racist" around is that it is too often boys crying wolf and dilutes the many real instances of racism. I've been accused of that too, but it is utterly incorrect (and anyone who says different is an apartheid-worshipping, indigenous baby-eating, genocidal, skin head, Nazi racist.)

As for putting people in jail only after their appeal time has expired/grace period, I may have to add that to any constitutional convention discussion - which will have a new agenda on Wednesday so I'll get cracking on that now.

ELECTION BOOK UPDATE: Centrebet volatile: Labour $1.50 Now $1.45 - Where I've had it all week!

-------------LATEST NEWS---------------
10:40pm 31/8: Centrebet odds are actually for the party and not the leader after all:

Pay on the party that provides the prime minister following the next New Zealand general election. Pay on official result. Bets settled at the time of swearing in. All in. Win only. Singles only. Quote others.

They now only have Labour and National and have dropped NZF and Act. So now my odds (Option 2) and their's are practically identical.

Centrebet's new odds (29/08 12:30am) for next PM:
CLARK $1.28/$1.30 @12:30pm 29/8 $1.50 @12:30am 30/8
BRASH $3.25/$3.20 @12:30pm 29/8 $2.40 @12:30am 30/8
CLARK $1.45 @11:20am 30/8
BRASH $2.55 @11:20am 30/8
PETERS $1001.00
HIDE $2001.00


-------------COMMENTARY---------------
11:20am 30/8: Now Centrebet are at $1.45 for Labour! So they've ended up this morning where I've had them all week after a hell of a roller coaster ride. I think they may have been at $1.25 at one point. Brash has moved a whole dollar. I wonder what the total amount in the market is?

12:30am 30/8: What is Centrebet playing at? Huge volatility with no real extra data to justify it. So it must have
been a huge bet on Brash
that wrenched it so far back. And at $3.25 - as I have said earlier (see below) - it would have been a good bet. I wonder who it was? I, however, feeling completely vindicated, will keep my odds as is. If my book was real rather than notional I would look at counterbalancing by taking some of that action on Clark at the moment - so in a market sense they are doing the right thing (no shit!).

12:30am 29/8: Nats are pulling it back a bit after the tax cuts policy as reflected in the polling (see below). Labour will get dirty again soon and Don's Aussie advisers will tell him to start bashing Maori and he will. NZ First on the wane. After the said bashing NZF cannot hope to get more than 10% as I once predicted last month. Centrebet's odds seem very generous to Clark. Brash is a good bet at this point ($3.25). My "head-to-head" (Option 2) difference to Centrebet's "next PM" is because the Greens look likely to get over 5% while National has no such partner and is less likely to form a government even if it ends up with more party votes. It is still fairly unstable - my odds remain unchanged until more evidence of the Nat's selling of their tax policy comes in.

-------------CURRENT ODDS--------------
-----2005 New Zealand General Election-----

Punters are invited to make their selections in the comments section.

HEAD TO HEAD

Option 2: Nat-Lab head-to-head largest party vote.
$1.45 Labour
$2.60 National

PARTY VOTE

Polls: M=Molesworth&Featherston's averaged poll-of-polls. S=Sunday Star-Times, H=NZ Herald, N=National Business Review. 3=TV3 1= TV One, F=Fairfax TS=Tim Selwyn's prediction.

Odds...Partyvote %...2002 election/poll&date...Punters
Option 3: Labour party vote.
$15.00 50%+
$03.20 45-49.99% 107/8 H14/8 121/8 H26/8
$01.60 40-44.99% 2002 H29/7 N29/7 S31/7 F13/8 322/8 N26/8 S28/8 128/8
$02.20 35-39.99% M22/7 TS26/7 328/7
$05.50 30-34.99%
$33.00 25-29.99%
$66.00 20-24.99%
$99.00 00-19.99%
Option 4: National party vote.
$20.00 50%+
$04.50 45-49.99%
$02.60 40-44.99% M22/7 S31/7 107/8 F13/8 128/8
$01.70 35-39.99% TS26/7328/7 H29/7 N29/7 H13/8 121/8 322/8 H26/8 S28/8
$02.50 30-34.99% N26/8
$09.00 25-29.99%
$50.00 20-24.99% 2002
$66.00 00-19.99%
Option 5: NZ First party vote.
$04.00 10%+ 2002 TS26/7
$04.00 09-09.99% M22/7
$02.80 08-08.99% N29/7 322/8 N26/8
$02.00 07-07.99% 328/7 H29/7 S31/7 H14/8
$01.90 06-06.99% F13/8 121/8 H26/8 S28/8
$02.20 05-05.99% 107/8 128/8
$02.50 00-04.99%
Option 6: Greens party vote.
$04.00 10%+
$03.50 09-09.99%
$02.00 08-08.99% N26/8 S28/8
$01.80 07-07.99% 2002 TS26/7 N29/7 322/8 128/8
$02.00 06-06.99% M22/7 328/7 F13/8 121/8 H26/8
$03.00 05-05.99% S31/7
$07.50 04-04.99% H14/8
$15.00 03-03.99% H29/7 107/8
$50.00 02-02.99%
$80.00 01-01.99%
$99.00 00-00.99%
Option 7: Maori party vote.
$07.00 05%+
$03.50 04-04.99%
$01.90 03-03.99% TS26/07 H29/7
$01.80 02-02.99% 328/7 H14/8 H26/8
$03.50 01-01.99% M22/7 N29/7 S31/7 107/8 F13/8 121/8 322/8 N26/8 128/8
$20.00 00-00.99%
Option 8: United Future party vote.
$33.00 10%+
$33.00 09-09.99%
$25.00 08-08.99%
$18.00 07-07.99%
$12.00 06-06.99% 2002
$08.00 05-05.99%
$03.50 04-04.99%
$02.50 03-03.99% N29/7
$01.80 02-02.99% TS26/7 F13/8 322/8 N26/8
$02.00 01-01.99% M22/7 328/7 H29/7 S31/7 107/8 121/8 H26/8 128/8
$15.00 00-00.99% H14/8
Option 9: Act party vote.
$33.00 10%+
$30.00 09-09.99%
$22.00 08-08.99%
$09.00 07-07.99% 2002
$06.00 06-06.99%
$04.50 05-05.99%
$03.00 04-04.99%
$02.00 03-03.99% TS26/7
$01.90 02-02.99% 107/8 121/8 N26/8 S28/8 128/8
$03.00 01-01.99% M22/7 328/7 H29/7 N29/7 SST31/7 F13/8 H14/8 322/8
$15.00 00-00.99% H26/8
Option 10: Progressives party vote.
$20.00 05%+
$18.00 04-04.99%
$09.00 03-03.99%
$03.50 02-02.99%
$01.55 01-01.99% 2002
$01.35 00-00.99% M22/7 TS26/7 328/7 H29/7 S31/7 107/8 H14/8 H26/8
Option 11: All others party vote.
$02.00 05%+
$02.00 04-04.99% 2002
$01.90 03-03.99% TS26/7
$03.00 02-02.99%
$20.00 01-01.99% H29/7 H26/8 128/8
$50.00 00-00.99% M22/7
--------------------------------------

Bet closes: 16/09/2005 Results: are for election night % of total vote (excluding informals). TAB disclaimer: this is simulated only.

Friday, August 26, 2005

Celebrating brutalism

Berlin's glorious 1970sPalast der Republik on Marx-Engels Platz.


Warren & Mahoney's Stalinist-Germanic inspired brutalist, linear masterpieces continue to this day in austere, cold, formal, inhuman, multi-facade impracticality for haus und kirche.

Only for the most pretentious of glorified accountants is the prospect of actually living in the bleak cavernous voids of a personality-free home of sharp lines and naked edges that only Warren & Mahoney can authoritatively impose. Their impersonalised structures at Auckland University's city campus constitute a now legendary hegemonic triumphalism of the detested Works Registry, an historical holocaust and an architectural genocide. The deprevation of human privacy and relentless steel and grey of exposed concrete invoke the hopelessness and utilitarian economic degradation of the spirit of youth that pervades the institution.

The closest mere mortals can come to over-powering the form is the executive play pen of our Prime Ministerial dictatorship - the Beehive's cabinet room.



Originally planned as a foyer for robotic overseers in W&M's early sketches the image cleary shows the large refrigeration unit suspended from the ceiling. The Vampire-Zombie chairing this meeting of humanoids keeps the temperature to -5 degrees C in order to survive during the daytime. All of the mirrors were removed prior to opening.

Thursday, August 25, 2005

Treasury forecasts



The various election debates have been splendid to date contrary to some opinions. The finance debates have been very good. Who would have thought 10 years ago that Jim Anderton would be standing there as total Labour stooge selling lower corporate tax rates!? - saying (as he did the other day) that he doesn't care if that encourages foreign owners to repatriate more profits because we have to do something "symbolic" for business?! Of course the old fuckwit can sit around the cabinet table playing with his mechano set while Michael Cullen puts 92% of the vast Super Fund into off-shore investments and then go on TV, without blinking, and say we don't have enough infrastructure or business investment and should encourage more from off-shore. Fuck wit. The National Bank Money For Jam Oh God This Is The Most Sure Fire Safest Investment Ever comes up for sale and Anderton does absolutely nothing. As someone could have said "There's a licence to print money, Jim - We could buy it with the Super Fund, keep half as a passive investment and sell the rest to Mom and Pop Kiwi investors and reduce the current account deficit and cream it - what was that, Jim, don't interupt me when I'm writing my "underinvestment in the economy - govt. should act" speech. Right. Ok, Jim, - oh, and Jim the cleaning lady says all the mechano nuts and bolts in the carpet are damaging the vacuum cleaner."

Good to hear Winston Peters making some sense (in a scare-mongering framework, naturally) about underinvestment and export plans. He took almost sole credit for handling the '97 Financial Asian Crisis as Treasurer and not crashing the economy. Not so good to hear that our massive, ever-ballooning current-account deficit is not a priority for anyone (except maybe Peters) and that they still haven't seen the big picture regarding the Super Fund's off-shore billions being used as asset ballast to keep our dollar high while we mortgage our property to Aussie banks and use immigration as a tool to keep those assets high. Gareth Morgan and his continuing, lisping, handle-bar moustached, prophesies of real estate doom seem more reasonable by the day.

Good to see Rod Donald getting along so well with Cullen considering he wants a seat at the grown ups table. Cullen allocates $10-20m annually for each coalition or supporter to do with as they like on their pet projects. And the cheap whores whore their whoring whore votes for that whoringly whorefully risible amount like the filthy whores of whoredom they are. For Anderton it is a crony-capitalist lolly scramble "regional development" circus. For the Greens it was the energy efficiency conservation authority thingy quango thingy that puts stickers on appliances to say whether it lives up to Jeanette's puritan standards. For the Family Common Sense Christian Worm party it was a flakey Families Commission. And now Donald has said (and Cullen has agreed) to a "Buy NZ made" campaign - which will use up their $10-20m if they get in. Peters will get a $10-20m Export Assistance Planning Authority thingy if they want NZFirst help. Pita Sharples is right now working out how many Kapa Haka shows he can put on for $10-20m.

John Key tries. He seems really nice. Skillfully tucking into that $40k+ ambitious singles and small family demographic to undercut Labour. Pensioners might get a lift too. That's good. If only Key could do the selling and not dozey old Don.

Rodney Hide deserves to get back in and those traitors who wanted Franks as leader should worship the ground Hide walks on. He was great on the economy debate on the wireless the other day, and on Kim Hill the other night. Can't understand the Amerika-worshipping/nuke-loving myself, but no one's perfect. If National look likely to lose with a fortnight to go expect to see those ex-Act Nat supporters thinking: Do I want to see a lefty govt. with just National in opposition and no Act and maybe no Act ever because of the blood-letting that would occur afterwards and the logistical nightmare of rebuilding with no parliamentary money. If that happens they will swing back as they have done at each election so far. The ideal would be Rodney winning Epsom and not reaching 5% but bringing in everyone short of Franks (who can then promptly fuck off and join the Nats like he habitually says he wants to).

It may come down to simple messages:
Cullen is a Treasurer presiding over a good economy who will stop interest on Student Loans and help families.
Key is a wannabe with no track record with a complex Student Loans plan and will help middle-high income earners.

Why should we change horses now?

Tuesday, August 23, 2005

"Race relations" on the TV1 head-to-head leaders debate

Clark:
On Treaty of Waitangi settlements: "We're tough negotiators" - so she's boasting about screwing Maori over and pretending the process is "fair"? Well how can it be? - it's not the courts ordering remedies (remember she legislates against that if they think it might even be a possibility) it is small groups of families forced into large groups that the Crown wants to deal with, told that they will not get anything above a pre-set amount (typically exactly $40m regardless of what the claim is) on a take it or leave it basis... is that a fair negotiation? At least she admitted she was being harsh - but said it as if she was proud of it! If she's harsh on one group is she harsh on all, and if not, why?

On Maori party supporting her government "last cab off the rank" - Maori must be getting the message loud and clear by now. Labour will lose all 7 seats.

On immigration: everything is great and there's a skilled category and people aren't in crappy jobs anymore. Well, they certainly are - catch a cab in Auckland or visit a convenience shop in Auckland and claim that qualified immigrants aren't under-used in shitty jobs. Brash of course didn't counter her unsupported assertion.

Brash:
When asked "who is a Maori?" Instead of saying: "I don't care about race" or "unlike under Labour's policies that won't be the question National will ask when making policy..." or even "That's a question that a Pakeha can't really answer" etc. instead, right on cue, the slow motion car wreck that Sainsbury dreamt, starting happening. He said (probably with a prolonged "Errrrr") "Well, legally..." and ended up about percentages etc.- at one point he looked like he might be going to pull out a phrenology kit. What an idiot. If he says he doesn't care about race and then starts telling Maori who they are and aren't, like a racial hygiene quack from the 1930s then what credibility does he have? Idiot. He's like a human muppet.

On Maori Party compromise on abolishing Maori seats he refused to rule it out. Ha!

On immigration: Clark belted him with probation idea is treating them like "criminals" - and he left it hanging with a series of denials. The guy is such an amateur. He forgets she's not human: it's a vampire zombie in a lifeless, disfigured, humanoid husk.

Sunday, August 21, 2005

ELECTION BOOK UPDATE: Labour now $1.50Now $1.45

------------ NEWS UPDATE---------------
@11pm 22/08:
Leaders Debate TV1, Brash-Clark head-to-head. Don fails to fire, equivocating and qualifying, allowing himself to be walked all over by the heavily made up Zombie Queen. Prebs just said "ate him alive" on the post analysis - good call. Brash almost said he would vote for her when asked by the moderator to quote their good points to each other. As far as landing punches goes - Mark Sainsbury landed more than Brash and he was being a good neutral host.

The Nats' Tax cuts are fairly tangible for that 50k+ no-kids/small family group they were targeting - but can they sell it effectively? The debate tonight would suggest Don cannot. So, I'm dropping my odds (see below).

Centrebet's new odds for next PM, sensing Brash is toast too:
CLARK $1.40
BRASH $2.70
PETERS $501.00
HIDE $1001.00


TV3 poll:
LAB 41%, NAT 37%, NZF 8%, GRN 7%, UNF 2.1%, MAO 1.8%, ACT 1.4%, Don't Know 10%

-------------LATEST NEWS---------------
Centrebet's lates odds for next PM (22/08 @ 3:40pm):
CLARK $1.45
BRASH $2.55
PETERS $501.00
HIDE $1001.00

They have taken a swing to Labour. Was the Nat's tax policy a fizzer in their eyes? Was the One News poll another nail in the coffin? And just when both of our odds were finally at parity! Centrebet seems to be consistently more aggressive in their odds making and tends to react more strongly to individual events (such as polls and debates) as well as the actual wager amounts. So expect to see some more movement from them after the TV1 debate. I will change mine too as, mentioned below and elsewhere, today is crucial for National and if they fumble they will pay heavily. Labour's spin against them (Housing starts as more counter-ballast) has already begun.

-------------NEWS---------------
Centrebet's odds (21/08) for next PM have solidified somewhat:
CLARK $1.50, BRASH $2.40, PETERS $501.00, HIDE $1001.00

Latest One News poll: (21/08):
LAB 45%, NAT 37%, NZF 6%, GRN 6%, UNF 1%, MAO 1%, ACT 2%, DST 1%.
Clark's preferred PM rating still steady, 43%, but Brash has taken a dip after quite a long haul up to respectability to 21%. This is telling. If the Nats are to win their leader must must be footing it with the PM, not having half their own side wanting someone else. The tax cut allocation on Monday is supposed to be the feather in Don's cap. If it falls flat the odds will lengthen for National very quickly. They remain within striking distance, but the trend is ebbing away from them for the last two weeks.

-------------CURRENT ODDS--------------
-----2005 New Zealand General Election-----

Option 2: Nat-Lab head-to-head largest party vote.
was $1.55 now $1.50 now $1.45Labour
was $2.30 now $2.45 now $2.60National

Our unsuccessful democracy

Racist gatekeepers. In the past they were primarily English.

Deferrence to the views of newly arrived Englishmen because of their percieved closeness, immediacy to the "Home" to which they assumed we belong exclusively and the assumption of automatic superior standards by the colonial locals of these people gave them an air of authority in all matters. If they wanted a colour bar or to initiate some sort of racial preference or privilege then it was accepted.

When the English-accented leader of the Liberterianz Party says he wants to abolish the Treaty of Waitangi, when Michael Cullen and Dale Jones - both originally English nationals (and maybe still are) - write the Foreshore and Seabed Act so that it implicitly imputes that if a Pakeha has touched Maori property it becomes the property of the government and thence can be leased off in perpituity to Pakeha, when we have both major parties trumpeting the sale of Crown land to Pakeha farmers as policy but make it tourtuous for Maori to regain property taken unjustly from them, we have to wonder if we have really made any progress at all in liberating ourselves from such a disgraceful situation. When we have members of Parliament who are also citizens of other countries what credibility do they have in forging our future when they are fundamentally conflicted?

John Stuart Mill, amongst many other liberal-type political philosphers, wondered if democracy can operate successfully where ignorance and prejudice subsumes most of the voting population. In this country, where our own history is only now being taught in any serious manner and the legacy of unchallenged public bigotry is compounded annually with tens of thousands of immigrants who bring with them their own prejudices and whom cannot know anything of us, we have an unsuccessful democracy. If our system rewards bigotry, enables non-citizens to vote, encourages people who cannot communicate in either of the official languages to vote, then is it any wonder we have neither respect for locals and their customs or any constitutional protections for our rights and property.

Citizens must constitute the exclusive group that decides how we rule ourselves, ie. voters.
Citizens who have no other nationality must constitute the legislative and executive, ie. parliament.

Thursday, August 18, 2005

GUESS THAT IGNORANT RACIST

This from the NZ Herald's Simon Collins today on explaining red necks:

The predominant theme is that, whatever the rights and wrongs of 150 years ago, the Treaty now gives money and privileges to people who just happen to be descended from the "right" side of the New Zealand wars - even though almost every Maori now also has European ancestors.

Where does one start? Who, through those "wars" now owns the most productive agricultural land of the Waikato, Taranaki and Bay of Plenty with all the money and privileges that go with that? It isn't the Maori owners is it? (What was that, mate: "those lucky fucking Jew houlacaust survivors and their kids getting those handouts eh... some of them are even less than half-Jewish!) Pick up your marching drum Orange Boy and head off down the Shankill why don't you.

Does Collins then make mention of the outrageous misinformation, presumptions, historical illiteracy and outright racism of these people? No, of course not, he works for the paper that was founded by white extremists on the issue of demanding the Waikato be confiscated - before there was even a war! What a wonderful insight into his race-bonding brotherhood and the towering intellects of Pakehadom you get down the fleamarket. Hear their oppressed voices now, as their hero's struggle for freedom against Maori oppression is hereby reproduced verbatim:

To make our quest more palatable:

--------------------------------

GUESS THAT IGNORANT RACIST
Match the racist bullshit with the type of racist. (Answers here.)

IGNORANT RACIST BULLSHIT:

"If I sold my house to someone and came back 20 years later and wanted it back, it wouldn't happen."

"All of us are New Zealanders... Helen Clark just keeps forking out and forking out to those Maoris. I think there's got to be a point where she's got to say, 'That's enough'."

"If the Maoris can have one [a treaty], why can't the Chinese, the Samoans, the Tongans?... If you are going with the one world, stuff the treaty settlements. What's the point?"

"I have a son paying his way through tech, who wants to know why his education isn't free when some of his mates are free just because they're of a different race."

"We have a classic example - the kohanga reo gets everything, but the playcentre struggles with the parents helping them."

"It's racism in reverse... You can't have democracy on the one hand, and on the other hand favour one group of people. It doesn't make sense. It can't work."


TYPE OF IGNORANT RACIST

Howick student, Becky Tappin, 18,
Tauranga administrator, Leslie Kruger, 45
Pukenui woman, 61
Manukau storeman, Saki Ah San, 32
Christchurch distribution worker, Helen McLellan, 40
Taupaki floristry worker, Jacqui Burdett


The South African one has "fled" here, Simon Collins informs us. From what - paying slaves? Aren't we importing such wonderful new New Zealanders. The Pakeha education system has failed many people.

Monday, August 15, 2005

Lange


David Lange (right)

The reason I wrote ill of you, from time to time, was because you could never live up to the high expectations you had made it possible to believe in.

His works live on.


Let some order of public service occur - it would be appreciated by many.

Sunday, August 14, 2005

ELECTION BOOK UPDATE: Labour polling: who won the TV3 debate?

Have just been telephone polled by UMR-Insight. Questions obviously for and about the Labour party in bold.

The full set of questions:
How certain are you to vote at this election?
Is the government on the right track or wrong track?
Party vote?
"Any chance you would vote Labour?" (Answer: Ha, ha - No!)
Local vote? (Answer: Hopefully an independent)
How did you vote in 2002 election?
Would National or Labour lead the next government?
"Does Labour deserve to be re-elected?" (Answer: No, but National doesn't deserve to be elected either.)
What's your single most important issue? (Answer: Justice, but not law and order - procedural fairness. Poller then creates seperate category)
Which party would best deal with that issue?
Party leaders: How do you rate:
Helen Clark?
Winston Peters?
Don Brash? (Answer: Very unfavourably to all three)
Which party has the best policies for New Zealand's future?
Who do you think has had the most impressive campaign?
Who is doing the most mud-slinging? (Answer: Labour)
Who do you think has made the most unaffordable promises?
Who has concentrated on the most important issues?
TV3 Leaders debate: who won?
Household/income/age questions etc. including:
Do you have a student loan? (Answer: Yes).


The student loan responses will be interesting to see what sort of inroads Labour have made and whether they are at the Greens' expense. Mudslinging too - but some people might think that it works and/or is a positive and legitimate tool. Also the expectations of who will lead the government regardless of one's personal preference is a good indication of the electorate's mood. If National can't chip away at that they are stuffed - although their support seems to be holding up in the latest polls. Problem with being polled at home on a lovely sunny Sunday is that people will be rather unconcerned or optimistic than realistic when asked about issues.

-------------LATEST NEWS---------------
Centrebet's new odds (14/08) for next PM seem to have calmed down after the latest Fairfax poll:
CLARK $1.46
BRASH $2.50
PETERS $501.00
HIDE $1001.00

Fairfax poll: (13/08):
LAB 42%, NAT 41%, NZF 6%, GRN 6%, UNF 2%, MAO 1%, ACT 1%
Herald on Sunday Digipoll (14/08):
LAB 45%, NAT 38%, NZF 7%, GRN 4%, MAO 2.4%, ACT 1.6%, UNF 0.7%, PRG 0.3%

The odds remain unchanged (Centrebet is drifting back in my direction after over-reacting to the TV3 debate):

-------------CURRENT ODDS--------------
-----2005 New Zealand General Election-----

Punters are invited to make their selections in the comments section. I will fix the odds shortly and display your name on the board next to your selection.

Option 2: Nat-Lab head-to-head largest party vote.
was $1.60 now $1.55 Labour
was $2.20 now $2.30 National

Friday, August 12, 2005

ELECTION BOOK UPDATE: Labour $1.55 after Brash's iffy TV debut/Centerbet crucifies Brash: now $2.62!

-------------LATEST NEWS---------------
Reacting more strongly to the TV3 debate than I expected, Centrebet's new odds (12/08) for next PM:
CLARK $1.44
BRASH $2.62
PETERS $501.00
HIDE $1001.00

Centrebet is taking the leaders debate seriously:
NZ Election betting is closed for tonight due to the debate. The book will open again on Friday at approximately 9am CST
Yours sincerely,
Cindy
Centrebet

I'm picking they will shorten Labour to $1.50-$1.47 seeing as how Brash dropped the ball and Clark got through unscathed.

TV3 Leaders debate plus gatecrashers strengthen Labour, Greens and United Future - stability facade reinforced. Evidence emerging that Brash is personally weak esp. on foreign policy and voter response to Labour's negative campaigning working. Hide still floundering. Still a lot of water to go under the bridge so I'm not dropping it substantially.
-------------CURRENT ODDS--------------
-----2005 New Zealand General Election-----

Punters are invited to make their selections in the comments section. I will fix the odds shortly and display your name on the board next to your selection.

Option 2: Nat-Lab head-to-head largest party vote.
was $1.60 now $1.55 Labour
was $2.20 now $2.30 National

Thursday, August 11, 2005

TV3 LEADERS DEBATE: more exclusive coverage

LIVE FROM THE AFTER-FUNCTION:


PETERS: Reverts immediately to type: three new fears in three years
Threadbare: D


DUNNE: Did I talk enough about the family?
Worm-charmer: A


TURIA: Can't wait to leave
Intimidated but stern: C-


CLARK: Worm report confirms focus group reports: should shut up more often
Remote but assured: A

Notice how prejudiced the worm was against Turia? If Dunne had said the same thing about family tax credits that Turia did he would have had it off the graph. And boy did they love Don the second he opened his mouth let alone when he was talking "one law" wharpage. Sieg Heil Herr Dr Paakeha Worm, sprookken duuis Afrikaans?

TV3 LEADERS DEBATE: An appeal to family

IMMEDIATE REACTION FROM THE AFTER-FUNCTION:


HIDE: Celebrating doubling in polls to 2%
Lacking: D


ANDERTON: With sole Progressive voter in Auckland
Lackey: B-



BRASH: Still justifying himself: the only assets I'll sell is Crown land to white farmers
Marginalised: B-


FITZSIMONS: Co-chairing facilitation group to consensus with Rod
Well meaning: B+

Moderator: John Campbell
Casting consultant: Justice Ron Young

Constitutional convention blog now live

---------UPDATE---------
Parliament's constitutional arrangements committee has issued it's report. Roundly bagged by all and sundry as a great big zero, I will comment on it once I have read it all. Reports also from: No Right Turn & Holden Republic. Good work, those gentlemen.
---------------------------------


The site for the constitutional convention is now up and running. All contributions welcome. They should be brief and to the point. Please make sure your comments are anon. or else they will be deleted. This is to allow participants to discuss the issues rather than each other.

It's a bold new experiment in on-line participatory democracy and anything in the current agenda can be discussed including the timeline and format etc. as well as the listed suggestions for discussion points. Whilst I intend to moderate it to start with I hope that can be circulated to others in time. We'll see how it goes.

If you have ever thought "that ought to be in the constitution" then now is the time to put it on the agenda. If you've had thoughts about ways in which these issues should be discussed then now is the time to put it on the agenda. To assist in the debate a list of constitutions are available on the side bar (The Pacific and Europe are complete, Americas partially complete, Africa and Asia needing more work at this stage).

Thank you in advance for your thoughtful contributions. I have no idea where it will end up, but the next agenda is due out on 31 August and will include material from your comments put into a logical format.

Wednesday, August 10, 2005

If I was standing for Auckland Central...

The key message would be:
I'm asking only for your electorate vote so we can get rid of the useless, time-serving, lacky, Judith Tizard
and
elect someone with a long-term plan to solve Auckland's transport crisis
and
will have that plan as the sole non-negotiable item for joining a government.


Oh, and all the other socially liberal stuff you would expect with the only fascistic items being of a nationalistic rather than conservative rationale.

The last item about government is pertinent if the polling is very close - as it is now - when forming a workable coalition may come down to the wire and thus gives some parties and members disproportionate power relative to size.

Controversial issues would be dealt with by having ambiguous images and slogans. Eg:
The drugs policy ad/billboard/poster would be a picture of a guy (maybe the candidate?) giving a girl a shottie near-kiss (the smoke just visible), extreme close up at 45 degree angle in black and white with the scary stencilled block words in blood red along the bottom: "STRONG ON DRUGS"

Asking for the electorate vote only for an independent electorate/regional-specific agenda is what MMP should be all about. Yes, it will cause an over-hang in parliament if everyone does it - but the electorate is the real winner.

And just so we're clear: the current dollops of election year transport funding will be frittered away as it always is without any long-term plan in place - and it isn't. Whose fault? The "Minister for Auckland." She is an insult to the collective dignity of the electorate.

Sunday, August 07, 2005

ELECTION BOOK UPDATE: Labour was $1.65, now $1.60

-------------LATEST NEWS---------------
One News poll (07/08):
LAB 45%, NAT 41%, NZF 5%, GRN 3%, ACT 2%, MAO 1%, UNF 1%
Centrebet's latest odds for next PM(7pm) 07/08:
Clark $1.60, Brash $2.20, Peters $251.00, Hide $661.00
New odds (10/08): Clark $1.53, Brash $2.35, Peters $501.00, Hide $1001.00
Some big punter has dropped $50k on Labour @$1.61 (pity they didn't grow some balls when they were at $1.90! Also perhaps reason why Labour is so short at the moment despite only one poll out recently. Have also shortened my odds.
-------------COMMENTARY---------------
Greens are dropping - terrible, convoluted hoardings. Maori Party and Labour squeezing them, esp. in Auckland. If only Nandor was 10 years younger and not a hippy.
Labour up, but Nats are holding despite the Student Loans policy - was it a king hit? - or did the Yanks-under-the-beds make any impact?
NZ First just not firing. Maybe that's why Winston is so tetchy lately. Plenty of time for a come back however.
I think centrebet has the odds almost correct this time.
-------------CURRENT ODDS--------------
-----2005 New Zealand General Election-----

Punters are invited to make their selections in the comments section. I will fix the odds shortly and display your name on the board next to your selection.

Option 2: Nat-Lab head-to-head largest party vote.
was $1.70, $1.65 (07/08) now $1.60 Labour
was $2.05, $2.10 (07/08) now $2.20 National

Odds...Partyvote %...2002 election/poll&date...Punters
Option 3: Labour party vote.
$00.00 50%+
$00.00 45-49.99% TV107/8
$00.00 40-44.99% 2002 NZH29/7 NBR29/7 SST31/7
$00.00 35-39.99% M&F22/7 TS26/7 TV328/7
$00.00 30-34.99%
$00.00 25-29.99%
$00.00 20-24.99%
$00.00 00-19.99%
Option 4: National party vote.
$00.00 50%+
$00.00 45-49.99%
$00.00 40-44.99% M&F22/7 SST31/7 TV107/8
$00.00 35-39.99% TS26/7TV328/7 NZH29/7 NBR29/7
$00.00 30-34.99%
$00.00 25-29.99%
$00.00 20-24.99% 2002
$00.00 00-19.99%
Option 5: NZ First party vote.
$00.00 10%+ 2002 TS26/7
$00.00 09-09.99% M&F22/7
$00.00 08-08.99% NBR29/7
$00.00 07-07.99% TV328/7 NZH29/7 SST31/7
$00.00 06-06.99%
$00.00 05-05.99% TV107/8
$00.00 00-04.99%
Option 6: Greens party vote.
$00.00 10%+
$00.00 09-09.99%
$00.00 08-08.99%
$00.00 07-07.99% 2002 TS26/7 NBR29/7
$00.00 06-06.99% M&F22/7 TV328/7
$00.00 05-05.99% SST31/7
$00.00 04-04.99%
$00.00 03-03.99% NZH29/7 TV107/8
$00.00 02-02.99%
$00.00 01-01.99%
$00.00 00-00.99%
Option 7: Maori party vote.
$00.00 05%+
$00.00 04-04.99%
$00.00 03-03.99% TS26/07 NZH29/7
$00.00 02-02.99% TV328/7
$00.00 01-01.99% M&F22/7 NBR29/7 SST31/7 TV107/8
$00.00 00-00.99%
Option 8: United Future party vote.
$00.00 10%+
$00.00 09-09.99%
$00.00 08-08.99%
$00.00 07-07.99%
$00.00 06-06.99% 2002
$00.00 05-05.99%
$00.00 04-04.99%
$00.00 03-03.99% NBR29/7
$00.00 02-02.99% TS26/7
$00.00 01-01.99% M&F22/7 TV328/7 NZH29/7 SST31/7 TV107/8
$00.00 00-00.99%
Option 9: Act party vote.
$00.00 10%+
$00.00 09-09.99%
$00.00 08-08.99%
$00.00 07-07.99% 2002
$00.00 06-06.99%
$00.00 05-05.99%
$00.00 04-04.99%
$00.00 03-03.99% TS26/7
$00.00 02-02.99% TV107/8
$00.00 01-01.99% M&F22/7 TV328/7 NZH29/7 NBR29/7 SST31/7
$00.00 00-00.99%
Option 10: Progressives party vote.
$00.00 05%+
$00.00 04-04.99%
$00.00 03-03.99%
$00.00 02-02.99%
$00.00 01-01.99% 2002
$00.00 00-00.99% M&F22/7 TS26/7 TV328/7 NZH29/7 SST31/7 TV107/8
Option 11: All others party vote.
$00.00 05%+
$00.00 04-04.99% 2002
$00.00 03-03.99% TS26/7
$00.00 02-02.99%
$00.00 01-01.99% NZH-29/7
$00.00 00-00.99% M&F-22/7
--------------------------------------
Polls: M&F=Molesworth&Featherston's averaged poll-of-polls. SST=Sunday Star-Times, NZH=NZ Herald, NBR=National Business Review. TV3! TV1= TV One, TS=Tim Selwyn's prediction.
Bet closes: 16/09/2005 Results: are for election night % of total vote (excluding informals). TAB disclaimer: this is simulated only.

Thursday, August 04, 2005

Time to cut the M-FAT

Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade. The most useless of all our government departments. Take a knife to these bastards now.

Much has been said of Labour's sluicing through the gutters with Phil Goff holding aloft their little dirt file of every bullshit thing Don and Lockie said to the Yanks in private like it was Lady fucking Liberty's torch of bloody freedom. Did they say it and is it as bad as Labour makes out? Probably. Owwwww - National likes America. No shit. It sounds like the usual arse-licking, sell-out, Amerika-worshipping, credulous performance of kow-towing we expect from any National Party politician. We don't need Goff to breach every ethical rule in the book to convince us of that. He used MFAT notes, of informal discussions to tell us the blindingly obvious. Now no opposition members will have MFAT officials to assist them in meetings thanks to his brazen affrontery to sound practise. When given the power and privilege he has chosen to abuse it. Typical, dirty Labour.

But what of MFAT and their "assistance." Are they to blame? Is some little Labourite lacky in MFAT behind it? Nothing from that organisation would surprise me. Let me explain:

MFAT chooses almost exclusively Masters graduates as staff. MA's in particular. This creates a class of academics that are expected to conduct our affairs overseas and provide policy to the government. Academics are good at using, formulating and proliferating jargon, writing reports that no-one is expected to actually read let alone action, having no sound grasp of reality, and finally, being well over-paid for the services provided. In short they are professionally adept at the art of doing nothing.

So this class, this brotherhood of officials, secreted in Hellington, decides how we interact with the World. Precious little in the way of policy seems to be set by the political masters - and most of their information comes from and is filtered by the Ministry. So let's look at their achievements:

* Australia bans our apples in the 1920s, only just thought of taking it to the WTO for a dispute resolution this year after 70 odd years of doing nothing.

* France launches a terrorist bombing on us in 1985 (Rainbow Warrior), and instead of mustering diplomatic support and using the UN and our contacts to pressure France, they do nothing and we accept blood money from France in exchange for turning the culprits over to them.

* French culprits set free within months and given medals and promotions (all of which everyone else on the planet knew would happen and said would happen) and they do nothing.

* The Solomon Islands starts it's descent into anarchy with spiralling inter-ethnic violence. The Solomon's government begs us for help because they cannot solve the problem themselves. MFAT advises Phil Goff that we should studiously do nothing until they have solved their problems themselves at which point we will provide the support that they no longer need! This sounds insane but this is exactly what happened. It was the Australians that finally decided to do something, initiated the dialogue and organised everything, even inviting us along - at which point the NZ media crowed about how we were doing something on the assumption that we had something to do with it - but we were an afterthought and had in fact made the situation worse by our inaction despite the retrospective lie that we had not done nothing.

* The French colonial territories in the Pacific, despite being the scenes of massacres, forced de-population and , nuclear testing and general oppressive policies that occur with colonies, a scurge that the UN was mandated to deal with, is openly congratulated and welcomed by us because our policy is to do nothing. We encourage French aid to even our own territories! The PM goes on about how France has a great role to play in the Pacific! Straight out of the MFAT bible, that one.

* We have a seat on the World Bank and the nut-job, Uber-Amerikan warmonger, Wolfowitz is put up for the vote by the US. Well, it wouldn't be MFAT if we didn't do nothing and vote in favour of a rampant militarist to control the heart of international banking system and loans to vulnerable countries. Who better than one of the architects of aggressive warfare by the world's only superpower? What a safe pair of hands. Thanks MFAT.

* We had a South African Embassy, a virtual Afrikaaner Nazi outpost on NZ soil until 1984. Our role in the defeat of Apartheid at the MFAT level was virtually nothing until the Fourth Labour government.

* Some poor Kiwi sap by the name of James Kirkwood is in a Louisianna jail for 7 weeks while the Poms are out almost immediately because MFAT though it was best just to, you know, do nothing.

* There are bound to be many more incidents, decisions, indecisions and inactions out there to illustrate enumerable instances of the do nothing policy.

* Last, and the worst of all by any standards was our culpability for the Rwanda genocide. We spent days furiously lobbying and pulling in favours to get that spot on the Security Council back in '93. This would be Don McKinnon's crowning achievement. Brought up in America as the son of a diplomat (and now Commonwealth Secretary-General) Don, though a politician, was a natural MFAT man. During our month chairmanship in April 1994 (shared with Colin Keating) on April 7th to be precise the 100 days of genocide in which almost a million Rwandans were massacred began. In January The Canadian peacekeeper reported to Kofi Annan (the useless head of peacekeeping operations) that genocide was imminent. By mid-April at least it was obvious what was occuring. For the record:

April 15 was the first of two days of UN Security Council debate on next steps in Rwanda—for which the Rwandan ambassador was present and about which he reported back to the interim government in Rwanda.  Over that same weekend, aware the UN Security Council was in retreat, the interim Council of Ministers, the genocide’s architects, met in Kigali and decided to take the program of extermination to the rest of the country.

So America's little helper chairing the UN's highest body. What a proud moment. I bet almost everyone reading this has no idea that the fate of Rwanda affectively lay in our hands. As an MFAT nadir, this was just unfathomably monumental. Oh sure, it's not our fault, America and France would have blocked anything... whatever. We had our chance, on the world stage, and we did nothing and almost one million died.

Everything else I have to say on the matter really is nought after that revelation I understand, but by way of a conclusion I offer the following:

Now they have to deal with political appointees of the calibre of Canadian High Commissioner and hack Labour MP Graham grey man Kelly, the life-long unionist fuck-knuckle that disgraced himself and the country with his idiotic comments, and they have to put up with bloated Jonathan Hunts who disgrace himself and the country and diner table shagging High Commissioners like... oh he was a National office holder stooge, but you get the drift. They have to behave diplomatically around all sorts of people. They all come from academic backgrounds. This combination means they tend to avoid taking action and prefer to do nothing as to not upset anyone. The advice they tender to ministers is similarly grey and static judging from the bland blatherings and implict upholding of any status quo position or acquiesence to whatever our bigger brothers say we should do.

There is this absurd notion floating around, although never stated overtly in print that I can find - a sort of a myth - that not only was NZ one of the founding members of the UN, but that Peter Fraser had a strong hand in it's foundation and strongly advocated for smaller states in the UN. I find that all rather hard to believe. Given the fact NZ still had not cut the "official" apron strings of British dependency (The Statute of Westminster) the idea is somewhat laughable. We have no track record of independence of thought or action whatsoever.

We like to think we are a little battler nation and can be proud of our record and hold our heads high in the great pantheon of nations... blah, blah, blah. But the truth is quite different. We are not willing to sell our vote because we simply give it away. We have no international sense of our own position as an independent state and even less, negligently less, of our own regional position and responsibilities let alone the moral fortitude to swim against the weakest tide.

MFAT needs a radical shake-up begining with some non-academics with practical experience of the outside world being appointed. The other half of the equation are the politicians; and quite frankly I think there is more hope of successfully reforming MFAT!

Monday, August 01, 2005

ELECTION BOOK UPDATE: Labour $1.70/Centrebet: $1.65

-------------LATEST NEWS---------------
Sunday Star-Times poll (31/07):
LAB 41%, NAT 40%, NZF 7%, GRN 5%, ACT 1%, MAO 1%, UNF 1%, DST 1%
Why conduct a poll and only have it take up a single short column with no graphics or image on page 5? Don't they like the Labour Party or something? Don't think politics is of any interest to their readers? It must of cost them a small fortune - why not use it? Very odd... even for a shit paper. Female editor, you know. Very odd priorities: tragedies and celebrity gossip, trashy, tawdry little tales of B-listers from the tenancy tribunal. Pathetic really. Very bad value for money. [Glad I was fired so many years ago... sure I'm over it... sure. Really, I am. No trace of irking regret. None at all. No harbouring of bitterness here. Chosing pretentious old fuck-knuckles over me - I'm fine with that. Their prerogative. They want grey middle class, inattentive TV reviews that are just a series of plot synopses - that's their right. Jobs for the fucking boys. Boring, shitey, witless, space-filling, ultra-safe, hack, wallpaper. Absolutely not in the slightest bit peeved at that at all. Really I'm not. Really.]
------------- NEWS---------------
Centrebet's latest odds (2pm) 29/07:
Clark $1.65, Brash $2.10, Peters $201.00, Hide $501.00
Today's NZ Herald Poll(29/07):
LAB 43.9%, NAT 37.5%, NZF 7.1%, MAO 3.4%, GRN 3.2%, UNF 1.9%, ACT 1.0%, DST 0.6%, ALL 0.5%, PRG 0.3%
Today's NBR Poll (29/07):
LAB 41%, NAT 35%, NZF 8%, GRN 7%, UNF 3.5%, ACT 1.7%, MAO 1.6%
Last night's TV3 Poll (28/07):
NAT 39%, LAB 39%, NZF 7%, GRN 6%, MAO 2.2%, ACT 1.6%, UNF 1.4%
Centrebet next PM (as at 1am):
Clark $1.80, Brash $1.90, Peters $201.00, Hide $251.00
-------------COMMENTARY---------------
Labour regains the agenda. National caught short, fails to fire back. Polls see minor parties flagging as news captured by fight between the big boys. Aussie bookies' early National favouritism falls back to Labour after only three days.
-------------CURRENT ODDS--------------
-----2005 New Zealand General Election-----

Punters are invited to make their selections in the comments section. I will fix the odds shortly and display your name on the board next to your selection.

Option 2: Nat-Lab head-to-head largest party vote.
was $1.75, now $1.70 Labour
was $2.00, now $2.05 National

Odds...Partyvote %...2002 election/poll&date...Punters
Option 3: Labour party vote.
$00.00 50%+
$00.00 45-49.99%
$00.00 40-44.99% 2002 NZH29/7 NBR29/7 SST31/7
$00.00 35-39.99% M&F22/7 TS26/7 TV328/7
$00.00 30-34.99%
$00.00 25-29.99%
$00.00 20-24.99%
$00.00 00-19.99%
Option 4: National party vote.
$00.00 50%+
$00.00 45-49.99%
$00.00 40-44.99% M&F22/7 SST31/7
$00.00 35-39.99% TS26/7TV328/7 NZH29/7 NBR29/7
$00.00 30-34.99%
$00.00 25-29.99%
$00.00 20-24.99% 2002
$00.00 00-19.99%
Option 5: NZ First party vote.
$00.00 15%+
$00.00 14-14.99%
$00.00 13-13.99%
$00.00 12-12.99% TS26/7
$00.00 11-11.99%
$00.00 10-10.99% 2002
$00.00 09-09.99% M&F22/7
$00.00 08-08.99% NBR29/7
$00.00 07-07.99% TV328/7 NZH29/7 SST31/7
$00.00 06-06.99%
$00.00 05-05.99%
$00.00 00-04.99%
Option 6: Greens party vote.
$00.00 10%+
$00.00 09-09.99%
$00.00 08-08.99%
$00.00 07-07.99% 2002 TS26/7 NBR29/7
$00.00 06-06.99% M&F22/7 TV328/7
$00.00 05-05.99% SST31/7
$00.00 04-04.99%
$00.00 03-03.99% NZH29/7
$00.00 02-02.99%
$00.00 01-01.99%
$00.00 00-00.99%
Option 7: Maori party vote.
$00.00 10%+
$00.00 09-09.99%
$00.00 08-08.99%
$00.00 07-07.99%
$00.00 06-06.99%
$00.00 05-05.99%
$00.00 04-04.99%
$00.00 03-03.99% TS26/07 NZH29/7
$00.00 02-02.99% TV328/7
$00.00 01-01.99% M&F22/7 NBR29/7 SST31/7
$00.00 00-00.99%
Option 8: United Future party vote.
$00.00 10%+
$00.00 09-09.99%
$00.00 08-08.99%
$00.00 07-07.99%
$00.00 06-06.99% 2002
$00.00 05-05.99%
$00.00 04-04.99%
$00.00 03-03.99% NBR29/7
$00.00 02-02.99% TS26/7
$00.00 01-01.99% M&F22/7 TV328/7 NZH29/7 SST31/7
$00.00 00-00.99%
Option 9: Act party vote.
$00.00 10%+
$00.00 09-09.99%
$00.00 08-08.99%
$00.00 07-07.99% 2002
$00.00 06-06.99%
$00.00 05-05.99%
$00.00 04-04.99%
$00.00 03-03.99% TS26/7
$00.00 02-02.99%
$00.00 01-01.99% M&F22/7 TV328/7 NZH29/7 NBR29/7 SST31/7
$00.00 00-00.99%
Option 10: Progressives party vote.
$00.00 05%+
$00.00 04-04.99%
$00.00 03-03.99%
$00.00 02-02.99%
$00.00 01-01.99% 2002
$00.00 00-00.99% M&F22/7 TS26/7 TV328/7 NZH29/7 SST31/7
Option 11: All others party vote.
$00.00 05%+
$00.00 04-04.99% 2002
$00.00 03-03.99% TS26/7
$00.00 02-02.99%
$00.00 01-01.99% NZH-29/7
$00.00 00-00.99% M&F-22/7
--------------------------------------
Polls: M&F=Molesworth&Featherston's averaged poll-of-polls. SST=Sunday Star-Times, NZH=NZ Herald, NBR=National Business Review. TV3! TS=Tim Selwyn's prediction.
Bet closes: 16/09/2005 Results: are for election night % of total vote (excluding informals). TAB disclaimer: this is simulated only.